Germany’s declining birth rate is expected to lead to a significant drop in the number of elementary school students over the next decade.

According to a study by renowned education researcher Klaus Klemm, the number of elementary school children could decrease by 6% in the next five years and by as much as one-sixth by 2035.

Declining birth rates drive lower student numbers

The key factor behind this trend is the decline in birth rates since 2022. While Germany recorded 795,000 births in 2021, the figure is projected to fall to 674,000 in 2024.

Before the impact is felt in elementary schools, kindergarten enrollment will drop first. Klemm estimates that by 2035, the number of children aged 0-3 years will shrink by nearly 500,000, bringing the total down to 1.72 million. Likewise, children aged 3-6 years in kindergarten will decrease by 530,000, leaving just 1.84 million.

Potential benefits for the education system

Despite the overall decline, Klemm sees an opportunity for Germany’s education sector. With fewer children in kindergartens and schools, resources such as staffing and classroom space will become more available. This could allow for more individualized attention and better learning conditions, potentially reducing the long-standing correlation between social background and academic success.

Germany has consistently scored poorly in international PISA tests when it comes to educational equity, with children from wealthier backgrounds achieving significantly better results than those from disadvantaged families.

Current kindergarten shortages and potential improvements

Although fewer children are expected in the future, there is currently a severe shortage of kindergarten spots. In 2023, there was a deficit of 306,000 daycare places for children under three years old, preventing many parents from enrolling their children.

Currently, only 37% of under-three-year-olds are in daycare, with notable regional differences:

• Western Germany: 34%
• Eastern Germany (including Berlin): 55%

Among children aged 3-6 years, 91.3% attend kindergarten, with little regional disparity.

As child numbers decline, more daycare spots may become available, allowing for smaller group sizes and better care quality.

Full-day elementary school initiative from 2026

In 2026, Germany will begin implementing a legal right to full-day elementary school. With fewer students, Klemm argues that this can be introduced with higher quality—including better facilities and more qualified staff.

He also sees fewer logistical obstacles for the Startchancen program, an initiative launched under the previous government that allocates €20 billion over ten years to support 4,000 schools facing major challenges.

Differing projections on future student numbers

While Klemm predicts a significant decline in student numbers, the Conference of Education Ministers (KMK) has presented a more conservative forecast.

According to Klemm, the KMK has not yet factored in the latest birth rate declines from 2023 and 2024. He also challenges their assumption that birth rates will recover, arguing that Germany’s trend aligns with similar patterns in other industrialized nations, where declining fertility rates persist due to an aging population of childbearing women.

Klemm’s projections also consider the latest population data from the 2022 census, which was released in early 2025. These figures are significantly lower than previous estimates based on the 2011 census.

The impact of migration on student numbers

In addition to birth rates, immigration also influences the number of school-aged children. Migrant children and children born to immigrants in Germany contribute to student numbers.

Klemm estimates that net migration will stabilize at 350,000 people per year by 2035, a figure matching the upper-end scenario in official government forecasts.

Some regions will be hit harder than others

The effects of declining student numbers will vary by region.

In Brandenburg, Klemm forecasts that the number of elementary school students will plummet from 99,000 to 53,000 by 2035.

In contrast, Hamburg is expected to see relatively stable student numbers over the same period.

With significant demographic shifts ahead, education policymakers will need to adapt to a changing student landscape in the coming years.