Artificial intelligence is expected to trigger one of the most profound labour market shifts in Germany’s recent history. A new study from leading labour and economic research institutes concludes that by 2040, AI could significantly boost productivity, transform entire sectors and ultimately lift the country’s annual GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points.
Despite the scale of the change, researchers emphasise that the total number of jobs in Germany is likely to remain stable. The disruption lies not in the quantity of work but in its distribution: around 1.6 million positions will either disappear or be created, marking a structural realignment across the economy.
The projected economic impact reaches trillions
The study, conducted by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) in Nuremberg along with two partner organisations, outlines the broader macroeconomic effects of AI adoption. Analysts estimate that by 2040, artificial intelligence could contribute an additional 4.5 trillion euros in value.
This gain is attributed to several factors: more efficient use of materials, dramatic productivity improvements and the creation of entirely new business models driven by data and automation. Sectors that integrate AI early and strategically are expected to benefit the most.
Winners and losers across industries
Not every industry will experience the AI transition in the same way. Projections show that the IT and information services sector will see some of the strongest gains, potentially adding around 110,000 new jobs. This growth reflects the rising demand for digital infrastructure, cybersecurity, software development and data management.
In contrast, the business services sector may face the steepest losses, with a projected decline of roughly 120,000 positions. Administrative roles and areas where tasks can be automated efficiently appear particularly exposed to change.
Researchers stress that these examples represent only part of the wider transformation. Many other industries—from logistics and manufacturing to healthcare and retail—are expected to undergo substantial restructuring as AI becomes more deeply embedded in daily operations.
Skill levels will shift, but overall job availability remains stable
The study anticipates noticeable changes in the skill distribution of future employment. Demand for entry-level or assisting roles may remain relatively stable, but the need for traditional skilled positions could decline as automation handles increasingly complex tasks.
At the same time, new roles involving digital oversight, AI monitoring and advanced analytical work are expected to emerge. These developments will require workers to be flexible and willing to adapt as technology evolves.
Experts call for forward-looking qualification strategies
Researchers underline that the transition does not imply less work, but different work. IAB labour-market expert Enzo Weber highlights that Germany will need a workforce equipped with new competencies, supported by companies willing to innovate and invest in AI infrastructure.
His colleague Christian Schneemann points to the demographic challenges Germany faces, noting that AI has the potential to counterbalance labour shortages. For this opportunity to be realised, however, businesses and policymakers must prioritise targeted training programmes and promote a culture that embraces adaptability.
A decisive moment for Germany’s economic future
As AI reshapes business models, workflows and entire sectors, Germany stands at the edge of a transformation that will define its competitiveness for decades. The study’s findings are unambiguous: embracing artificial intelligence could strengthen the economy, fuel innovation and stabilise the workforce—provided that society, industry and policymakers move decisively.
If Germany succeeds in managing this shift, the AI revolution may not only change millions of jobs but also secure long-term economic resilience in an increasingly digital world.
