Germany’s government has reignited one of the country’s most divisive debates — the cost and future of migration. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) has promised to reduce the number of refugees in Germany, focusing first on Syrians. “The war is over, the dictator has fled,” he said recently — and now wants to begin organized returns.
Yet, the challenge is immense: deportations alone won’t work. Authorities are therefore discussing a new idea — cash incentives for voluntary return.
Paying people to go home?
The proposal is controversial but not new. Berlin is reportedly considering substantial payments to refugees who agree to return to their home countries — similar to Denmark, which offers up to €27,000 per person.
Germany’s own program currently grants €1,000 per adult (up to €4,000 per family) plus travel costs. Between January and October 2025, only 2,869 Syrians used this option — while more than 20,700 new asylum applications were filed in the same period.
Since 2012, Germany has enforced a deportation ban on Syria due to the civil war. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) now wants to lift it — at least for criminals and security threats — and is negotiating with the new Syrian authorities about regular repatriations.
When deportation isn’t enough
Germany faces a backlog of people obliged to leave but still living in the country. As of mid-2025, 225,000 migrants were officially required to depart, yet 82 % of them held a temporary suspension (Duldung) because deportation was impossible — often due to missing documents or medical reasons.
From January to September 2025, only 17,651 deportations actually took place. Another 12,262 migrants chose voluntary return.
Compared to its neighbors, Germany’s financial incentives remain low. “The Danish model could be an example for us,” said CDU foreign affairs spokesman Jürgen Hardt.
Migration researcher Dr Martin Fieder (University of Vienna) suggests a different approach:
“Instead of lump-sum payments, money could be linked to reconstruction projects — refugees who help rebuild their countries could receive a salary co-financed by Germany.”
Even Denmark’s generous offer has shown limited effect — only 120 Syrians accepted it between January and July 2025.
What migration costs the German state
The numbers are enormous. Federal, state and municipal authorities spend billions each year on housing, welfare and integration.
The federal budget for refugee-related spending reached €28.4 billion in 2024, up 40 % since 2014.
The states spent an additional €6.7 billion on asylum benefits — an increase of 179 % over the same period.
These rising expenses are fueling calls for reform, especially as public sentiment grows weary of high migration and fiscal strain.
Do refugees contribute economically?
Economist Dr Wido Geis-Thöne from the German Economic Institute says progress has been slow.
“Most arrivals lacked formal qualifications,” he explained. “Integration into the labor market takes years.”
Still, there are signs of improvement: around 299,000 Syrians now work in Germany, including 249,000 in full social-insurance jobs. Yet nearly 480,000 continue to receive welfare payments.
By contrast, Ukrainian refugees — who can work immediately under EU protection rules — show faster integration. About 352,000 Ukrainians are employed, three times more than in 2023. Analysts attribute this to completed language and integration courses, as well as more male arrivals filling jobs in construction and delivery sectors.
Where refugees come from
At the end of 2024, Germany hosted 975,000 Syrians (64 % men, average age 28) and 348,000 Afghans (65 % men). While arrivals excluding Ukrainians have been falling for three years, the total asylum applications remain high:
329,000 in 2023, compared to 97,000 by October 2025.
Border controls and stricter return policies appear to have had an effect. “Germany has signaled that asylum is not automatic anymore,” says migration expert Dr Fieder. “This shift away from the old ‘welcome culture’ clearly acts as a deterrent.”
The dilemma remains
Germany stands at a crossroads: it needs workers, yet public finances and social systems are stretched. Whether the government chooses incentives, stricter deportations or EU cooperation, one fact is clear — migration now costs the state tens of billions each year, and finding a sustainable balance will define the coming decade.
