Germany’s economic landscape is changing — and not evenly. According to the latest “Zukunftsatlas” (Future Atlas) published by the Prognos research institute, southern Germany continues to surge ahead, while parts of the west are losing ground. The east, on the other hand, is showing impressive momentum.
Every three years, Prognos examines how well Germany’s 400 districts and independent cities are positioned for the future.
The 2025 edition compares 31 key indicators in four areas: labor market, demographics, competition and innovation, and wealth and social conditions.
Together, they paint a revealing picture of how regions have developed — not only since 2022, but also in comparison with 2004.
Universities and innovation hubs as engines of progress
One of the biggest climbers this year is Mainz, home to biotech giant BioNTech, whose vaccine success brought the city billions in tax revenue. But the rise of Mainz began long before the pandemic.
The city’s strong university ecosystem and tight connection between science and business have created fertile ground for innovation.
Across Germany, the same pattern appears: where higher education, research, and industry work hand in hand, regions thrive. A university alone isn’t everything, but without it, almost nothing works.
Local leaders can’t control every success factor — university funding and location are state-level decisions — but strong networking and active cooperation between municipalities, academia, and businesses clearly make a difference.
When cities rest on their laurels
The ranking also highlights what happens when regions lose their drive. Dortmund, once a showcase for successful post-industrial transformation, has fallen 134 places since 2004, despite having a respected technical university and a vibrant football culture.
The Ruhr region, long a symbol of structural change, now struggles with stagnation. Frankfurt dropped 17 places, though it remains among Germany’s top performers.
The rest of the country’s major cities — including Berlin, Hamburg, and Munich — held steady or even improved their positions.
Eastern Germany: quiet rise after decades of rebuilding
Perhaps the most remarkable trend is found in the east. From Berlin and Leipzig to smaller regional centers, many areas have seen dramatic improvements in employment, innovation, and infrastructure since the early 2000s.
While the dream of former Chancellor Helmut Kohl’s “blühende Landschaften” (“flourishing landscapes”) may not have materialized everywhere, reunified Germany has achieved far more than many once believed possible. The economic gap between east and west is narrowing — slowly, but steadily.
Western Germany’s fading edge
Where there are winners, there must also be losers. According to the 2025 Future Atlas, several western regions — including parts of the Palatinate, Kleve, Düren, Dortmund, Essen, Krefeld, and the Rhein-Sieg district — have seen significant declines in their long-term outlook compared to 2004.
Analysts attribute this to structural stagnation, high industrial dependency, and insufficient innovation networks.
Many local economies remain tied to traditional industries, while southern and eastern regions attract high-tech investment and academic talent.
Key findings of the Future Atlas 2025
- Recession as a stress test: Employment stagnates, unemployment rises slightly.
- Southern Germany remains dominant: Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg account for over 70% and 91% of Germany’s strongest regions.
- NRW and Brandenburg catching up: Investments boost growth in the Ruhr region, Münsterland, and Uckermark.
- Emerging risks: Hesse, Saarland, Saxony, and Schleswig-Holstein see more areas sliding into “future risk” categories.
- Renewable energy leadership: Northern districts like Dithmarschen and Ludwigslust-Parchim lead in expansion.
- Innovation resilience: R&D hubs such as Wolfsburg, Jena, and Darmstadt secure top 50 positions.
What defines success in 2025
The message of the Prognos ranking is clear: education, innovation, and adaptability decide the future. Where regional ecosystems encourage collaboration between universities, start-ups, and established companies, prosperity follows.
In contrast, regions that rely on old industrial structures or resist modernization risk slipping further behind. For policymakers, the findings are both warning and roadmap: the Germany of 2030 will be built where research meets real-world business.
