As autumn days grow shorter and temperatures continue to fall, anticipation is building for the winter season. Many are asking: Will the winter of 2025/26 be colder than last year, and can Bavaria expect more snow?
Weather experts are already analyzing long-range models, and the first signals point to a complex picture. According to meteorologist Dominik Jung, a potential La Niña event could destabilize the polar vortex.
A weaker vortex may allow cold Arctic air masses to push into Europe, triggering an early onset of winter conditions. Sudden jet stream shifts could reinforce this effect, bringing frosty days earlier than usual.
October and November: A mixed start
Model runs from the American CFS weather system suggest that October 2025 will be warmer than the long-term average (1991–2020), with temperatures about 0.5 to 1 degree above normal.
However, higher levels of precipitation are forecast, especially in southern Bavaria and along the Alps.
Frosty nights could arrive as early as October, while November is expected to be unusually mild—up to two degrees warmer than average. Still, the first snowfall could reach Bavaria by late November.
December: Mild, with extremes possible
For December, the first official month of winter, forecasts point to temperatures one to two degrees above average. In lower altitudes, significant snowfall is considered unlikely if these projections hold.
However, Jung stresses that December could still be volatile, with two very mild weeks followed by two extremely cold ones.
January and February: Overall milder trend
Looking further ahead, January is expected to average about 0.5 degrees warmer than the climate norm.
February 2026 may even rise one to two degrees above the long-term mean. Despite this, regional cold spells remain possible, especially if sudden polar vortex disruptions occur.
Snow outlook for Bavaria
While temperatures are expected to trend milder, precipitation could increase.
The Alps, Lower Bavaria, and parts of the Upper Palatinate may see higher snowfall totals compared to recent years, though rain could dominate in lower areas.
Ultimately, the forecast suggests that winter 2025/26 may be less about steady cold and more about sharp contrasts—swinging between mild and icy extremes.
