The credit insurer Allianz Trade predicts that company insolvencies worldwide will continue to climb in 2026, marking the fifth consecutive year of increases. In its latest forecast, published jointly from Paris and Hamburg, the Allianz subsidiary estimates that global insolvencies will rise by around five percent compared to 2025.
According to the report, Germany will remain at a historically high level, with approximately 24,500 insolvency cases expected next year — up one percent from this year. “The number of cases in 2026 will reach the highest level in twelve years,” the study notes.
High pressure from trade conflicts and fragile start-ups
The company’s CEO, Aylin Somersan Coqui, warns that ongoing trade conflicts and slowing global demand are testing the resilience of businesses worldwide. As supply chains tighten and costs remain elevated, the risk of domino effects among firms is increasing.
Another weak point, according to the analysts, lies in the recent surge of start-ups across Europe and the United States. Many of these young companies have grown rapidly under favorable funding conditions but remain financially unstable. “Start-ups statistically carry a disproportionately high insolvency risk,” Allianz Trade explains.
The AI boom as a double-edged sword
While artificial intelligence continues to drive investment and optimism, Allianz Trade highlights a new potential danger: an abrupt end to the AI hype. The report draws parallels to the early 2000s dot-com bubble, warning that a similar market correction could trigger a wave of corporate failures.
In Germany alone, the insurer estimates that up to 4,000 additional insolvencies could occur if the AI boom were to collapse suddenly. Such a shock would primarily affect tech-oriented SMEs and start-ups heavily dependent on venture capital or speculative valuations.
A turning point in sight for 2027
Despite the gloomy short-term outlook, Allianz Trade expects a moderate recovery beginning in 2027. Supported by government stimulus measures and stabilizing interest rates, the number of insolvencies in Germany could fall by about four percent, reaching roughly 23,500 cases. Globally, the decline is forecast at around one percent.
The report suggests that economic policy interventions — including tax incentives, green investment programs, and liquidity support for SMEs — may start showing tangible effects by then. However, experts caution that the overall environment will remain fragile, with energy costs, inflation, and geopolitical risks still weighing on corporate stability.
Global economy walking a fine line
After several turbulent years marked by pandemic shocks, supply bottlenecks, and inflation, the Allianz Trade outlook underscores that global business remains on a knife’s edge.
A sudden shift in investor sentiment, particularly in high-tech and AI sectors, could quickly expose hidden vulnerabilities. For now, companies are urged to strengthen their liquidity reserves and focus on sustainable growth strategies to weather another challenging year ahead.
